Markets
- US consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest since 2014. The forecast was 89.2.
- Job openings fell by 256,000 to 7.08 million in August, below the 7.23 million forecast, and layoffs fell to a 17-month low.
- The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.59%, its highest since 2002, and the 10-year closed at 5.26%, close to its highest since 2007.
- The odds of another Fed rate hike in October held at about 68%. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point two weeks ago, to a 3.75% to 4.00% range.
- Brent crude fell 2.5% to $102.67 after the US Energy Department offered another 40 million barrels from the emergency oil reserve, the last of the 172 million barrels ordered in March.
- Brent's December contract closed at $95.67, $7 below the November contract that expires Wednesday, so the futures market expects more oil to come back.
- US gasoline futures fell 7% to $3.11 a gallon, while the average pump price is still above $4.
- Japan's Nikkei fell 0.6%, and about 380 points of the 396-point drop came from stocks going ex-dividend. The broader TOPIX index fell 1.7%.
- Today: China's official PMIs at 09:30 HKT. US August PCE inflation at 20:30 HKT, forecast 3.8% headline and 3.4% core. Micron's results at 04:30 HKT Thursday. Hong Kong and mainland China are closed Thursday for National Day, and the mainland stays closed until 8 October.
Stocks
- Fair Isaac, the FICO credit-score company, fell 26.5% to $617.87 because the US housing regulator will let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accept a rival credit score for mortgages, which ends FICO's monopoly on mortgage scoring.
- Carnival, the cruise line, rose 13.4% after its third-quarter profit beat expectations.
- Apple fell 2.7% to $329.40 after reports that new CEO John Ternus may cut middle-management layers and change the product launch calendar, which raises questions about how the company will be run.
- Meta rose 3.2% after Bank of America said Meta's new Muse assistant could pull app discovery and referral income away from Apple.
Deal flow
- AMD agreed to buy World Labs, the AI company founded by Fei-Fei Li, for $8.2bn.
- Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is preparing an IPO at a valuation above $2tn, according to a leaked prospectus reported on Tuesday, with $518bn of infrastructure commitments over the next decade.
- Oura, the smart-ring maker, delayed its IPO, which had been planned at a $15bn valuation.
- The US Energy Department offered up to 40 million barrels from the emergency reserve as loans to refiners, with bids due 6 October.
- OpenAI postponed the October release of GPT-6.1 after internal safety evaluations, according to reports.
Week ahead
- Thursday 1 October. Micron's results at 04:30 HKT. Hong Kong and mainland markets closed for National Day. US ISM manufacturing at 22:00 HKT.
- Friday 2 October. US September jobs report at 20:30 HKT, forecast about +50,000 with unemployment at 4.1%, after +162,000 in August. Hong Kong reopens, mainland closed until 8 October.
- The one thing that matters: Wednesday's core PCE, because it sets the odds of an October hike before Friday's jobs report.
Written by Longyi Fang. Prices from Yahoo Finance at Tuesday's US close, news from company statements and the wires. Personal views, and not investment advice.
